Alexander Snitker, the unknown Libertarian candidate in the
crowded Florida U.S. Senate race, breathlessly released an internal poll
Thursday showing him at 2.5 percent. His numbers are hardly worth
noting — he's likely in the margin of error. (Not to mention, the
polling company, Telsel in St. Augustine, run by Ira Bellas, is
an unknown quantity and didn't release the margin of error, as is
typical practice.)
But the more interesting figures: Gov. Charlie
Crist boasts solid lead — 40 percent to 32 percent — over GOP
rival Marco Rubio. (Crist's lead is slightly less among likely
voters, 40 percent to 33.5 percent.) Democrat Kendrick Meek can't
break 10 percent. (See the full release below.)
Another curious
note, when voters know Snitker, he appears to take the largest chunk
from Meek, though the margin of error in this question is likely too
high to draw conclusions.
The Snitker release:
Snitker Polling at 2.5% Among Likely
Voters, 12% Among Voters Who Know His Name
The first poll
to include the Libertarian U.S. Senate candidate in Florida shows Crist
still leading the pack, followed by Rubio and Meek. However, the big
surprise is that Snitker is polling at 12% among likely voters who are
familiar with him.
In a poll released today, 2.5% of
registered Florida voters said they would vote for Libertarian U.S.
Senate candidate Alexander Snitker if the election were held today.
Even more surprising is that the number jumped to 12% of likely voters
who said they were familiar with Snitker. This is the first scientific
poll to include Snitker.
The poll, commissioned by
the Snitker campaign and conducted by Telsel, Inc. of St. Augustine,
surveyed 505 registered voters selected at random from the 2010 Florida
Division of Elections database. Of the 505 respondents, 447 said they
are likely to vote in the November 2010 election.
The
party affiliation breakdown among respondents was 43% Democrat, 43%
Republican, and 14% third party or NPA.
The question asked
was, "If the election were held today, which Senate candidate would you
vote for?" The survey listed the candidates in the order in which they
will appear on the ballot. The results were rounded to nearest half
percentage point.
Candidate
All Respondents Likely Voters
Marco Rubio
(R) 32.0% 33.5%
Kendrick
Meek (D) 9.0% 9.5%
Alexander
Snitker (L) 2.5% 2.5%
Charlie
Crist (NPA) 40.0% 40.0%
Undecided
16.5% 14.5%
Respondents were
asked if they were familiar with each of the above candidates. Among
respondents who said that they were familiar with Snitker, the results
changed dramatically:
Candidate
All Respondents Likely Voters
Marco Rubio
(R) 30.0% 31.0%
Kendrick
Meek (D) 4.0% 4.5%
Alexander
Snitker (L) 11.0% 12.0%
Charlie
Crist (NPA) 38.5% 36.0%
Undecided
16.5% 16.5%
The data suggests
that as Snitker's funding and media presence improves, he is likely to
become a serious threat to Rubio, Meek and Crist, and he may actually be
in contention as November nears.
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