CQ has changed its rating on Florida's open Senate seat to likely Republican from leans Republican, saying Democrats have been unable to erode Gov. Charlie Crist's big lead in the polls.
"While Crist, a relatively centrist Republican, appears to have his hands full with a primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio — a darling of conservative activists — the Democrats so far have not made headway in eroding Crist’s big lead in poll matchups for the general election.
"The Democrats maintain the Florida race will be a high priority for them in fall 2010. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, has experience and political talent. But Meek will have to become much better known, raise vast amounts of money, and dodge the 'liberal' label the GOP will try to stick on him if he is going to make this a highly competitive contest.
"In fact, Democrats’ hope for a comeback in this race may depend on the Crist-Rubio Republican primary becoming a bruising affair. Crist has dominated the fundraising battle, bringing in $2.5 million in the third quarter of the year alone. But Rubio’s $1 million in receipts that quarter proved that his campaign is no fluke, and he’s gaining some big-name endorsements, including those of a pair of conservative senators and two members of Florida’s House delegation."
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